By now, you’ve probably heard of the Trump Effect, the belief that Americans are becoming less trusting of institutions and institutions are becoming more trusting of Americans.
It’s a narrative that has been embraced by the political right, which sees it as proof that liberal Democrats are somehow to blame for the president’s unpopularity.
But a new analysis by the University of Toronto’s Centre for Research on Globalization (CRG) reveals that Americans aren’t so naive about the Trump effect.
Rather, they are actually more likely to be trusting of the institutions they rely on and trusting of elites, according to a paper published Monday in the journal PLOS ONE.
It’s a surprising finding, especially in light of the fact that the country has historically been a highly trusting place to be a foreigner.
In the years before the global financial crisis, for instance, Americans were less likely to have trusted banks and brokers than they are now, according a 2016 Gallup poll.
The Pew Research Center found that trust in banks is the highest it has been in nearly two decades, and that Americans’ confidence in institutions has risen as a result.
Yet, the new CRG research shows that Americans have actually been less trusting in the past decade, when the “Trump Effect” began to take hold.
Americans are actually less trusting today than they were a decade ago, with the last three years showing that distrust is on the rise among both Republicans and Democrats.
The findings are particularly important for those who may be feeling more threatened by the Trump administration.
A recent survey by the Pew Research Group found that about a third of Americans said they were more worried about the future of the country under President Donald Trump than under former President Barack Obama.
And more than a third said they are more worried now than at any time since Trump took office.
While Trump has made his rhetoric about immigrants, refugees and Muslims more strident, the CRG researchers argue that he has also exacerbated some of the more entrenched prejudices that have been building for decades.
For example, they say, there is more distrust in white people than in minorities.
“In general, white people are more likely than black or Hispanic Americans to say they trust a majority of the people in their community, and a majority trust their elected officials,” the paper states.
The researchers also found that white people’s distrust of elites is on a steady upward trajectory over the past two decades.
And the growing distrust of politicians, elites and institutions has been particularly pronounced in the last decade.
“We found that the Trump influence has been strongest in the United States in the years since 2007 and 2012,” lead researcher David Lutz, a professor of political science at the University at Buffalo, told me in an email.
“We found the strongest growth in the trust for institutions in the first decade after Trump was inaugurated.
This was not an exception.
It was consistent across all regions.”
The CRG paper goes on to detail how it was possible to track how trust in institutions had grown and fell over the years.
In addition to tracking the number of trust ratings Americans give to institutions, the researchers also looked at trust in the two institutions that make up the institutions’ trust: the Federal Reserve and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.
The Federal Reserve is an institution that provides oversight and regulation of the banking system.
The Federal Deposit Association is an organization that provides financial services to the public.
CRG’s analysis found that institutions have increased their trust ratings over time as a function of the Federal Open Market Committee’s monetary policy decisions.
And trust in Federal Reserve ratings has increased the most since 2009, with trust increasing as the Fed raised rates.
But it’s important to note that there has not been a spike in the amount of trust in credit rating agencies.
It has remained fairly stable.
CRGB’s analysis also found no significant changes in the distrust of the two major economic and political institutions in general: the Democratic Party and the Republican Party.
“Our findings suggest that Americans continue to be less trusting institutions, but they are not likely to view them as more threatening,” the authors write.
While CRG points to a variety of reasons for the decline in trust in American institutions, one of the biggest is that Americans view elites more negatively, according the paper.
It notes that the 2016 presidential election marked the second year in a row that Trump lost to Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton.
In particular, Trump and Clinton both have a reputation as people who have taken money from Wall Street and have opposed other policies that could benefit their economic interests.
“While this is a major problem, the biggest problem is that trust of elites has not grown over the last few years,” Lutz said.
“Americans have not been able to understand why these institutions are so dangerous to their own economic and social well-being.”
Follow Laura Geggel on Twitter: @LauraGeggelRead more: http://www.latimes.com/nation/politics/politics-government/lauren-geggel/